Namibia will qualify for the next phase of the T20 World Cup with a victory over so-far-winless UAE on Thursday
Because of the way the cards have fallen, Namibia will qualify for the Super 12s with a win.
Should the Netherlands beat Sri Lanka in the afternoon game, the evening clash with United Arab Emirates will feel more like a procession. In those circumstances, only a particularly emphatic defeat could scoot them beneath Sri Lanka's net run rate. If its rain all day – and that can't be out of the question – then Namibia would slide through alongside the Dutch.
In short, the ball is in Namibia's court: victory over UAE, playing in their first World Cup since 2015, will propel them past the first week of this competition for a second consecutive year, having previously not taken part in a global tournament of any kind since 2003. For Pierre du Bruyn's charges, it's that close.
"We're just going to have to play perfect cricket in all three departments like we did against the Sri Lankans," said Jan Frylinck, "and I think that would be a good statement for us."
They have played against each other once before in a T20I – last year – and Namibia came out on top. Frylinck, as it happens, ended with the ninth-best bowling figures in T20I history. So, his – and their – only frame of reference is a selection of positive memories. Pressure does strange things, though, and Namibia would already be through if they'd beaten the Netherlands on Tuesday.
Namibia were beaten by the Netherlands on Tuesday (William West/AFP via Getty Images)
But on a stodgy surface that meant Frylinck faced 48 balls for his 43, leaving neither JJ Smit nor David Wiese with sufficient time to make a match-defining impact, they were out-scrapped, even if they so nearly pulled back the situation in the end.
Not for the first time in this tournament, the Netherlands looked to be making a mockery of a modest run-chase, only to fall over the line. Frylinck was central to that, his four overs costing just 16 runs as Scott Edwards' men lost four wickets in 17 balls. Still, though, they remain the only team to have successfully chased down a score so far in this competition's early stages – and they've done it twice.
THE BIG MATCHWho: Namibia v UAEWhere: GMHBA Stadium, GeelongWhen: Thursday, October 20 (7pm local time, 9am BST)Prediction: Namibia
Namibia's theory was that on a pitch where batters struggled to start, they were best-served taking the innings deep before letting loose their finishers.
"The way we assessed it was that, for the new guys coming in, it was a lot more difficult to score on that wicket," added Frylinck. "And I guess that's why sort of tried to bat as long as possible, give ourselves about 18 balls or so at the death and then try and start hitting some boundaries."
But leaving Wiese virtually unused – he smashed 11 off five balls when eventually called upon – cannot be the smartest play; in the same fixture 12 months earlier, the veteran allrounder came out at No.5 and ended unbeaten on 66, with Smit – too explosive a hitter to be wasted so low in the current line-up – his partner in an unbroken stand that got their country over the line.
Karthik Meiyappan claimed a historic hat-trick for UAE (William West/AFP via Getty Images)
Technically, their opponents, UAE, can still make it out of their group, but that eventuality would mean trouncing Namibia and a Dutch win over Sri Lanka. So, their main takeaway from Thursday will be valuable experience for a young side.
"Obviously, making the team to be in the World Cup was an achievement in itself," said Karthik Meiyappan after becoming the first associate-nation cricketer to take a World Cup hat-trick. "But the main goal was to play the Super 12s. As of now I think, going forward for us, it would be the 2023 World Cup in India. That's what we'll be prepping up for."