GEORGE DOBELL IN BRISBANE: Ahead of facing New Zealand at The Gabba, when the weather is expected to be poor again, the allrounder wants England to do justice to their tag as tournament contenders
It was an uncomfortable reality to which England arrived in Brisbane on Saturday.
As if the prospect of having to win their final two Super 12 games was not sobering enough - they are against New Zealand, who thrashed Australia a few days ago and knocked England out last year, and Sri Lanka, who are Asia Cup champions, after all - the fact is, England can win both games and still be knocked out.
For there is a strong possibility that qualification for the semi-finals will be decided on net run rate. And while England's is currently better than Australia's, there is obvious scope for Australia to markedly improve theirs. Their final two games are against Ireland and Afghanistan.
To make matters worse, the forecast for Tuesday (November 1) - when England are scheduled to play New Zealand - seems to be worsening by the hour. The current expectation is for "significant" rain during the afternoon. That loss to Ireland could yet prove decisive.
Perhaps inevitably in such moments, thoughts turn to other disappointing tours to Australia. To whitewashes and World Cup exits.
Moeen dragged towards victory against Ireland before the rain came (WILLIAM WEST/AFP via Getty Images)
But it's not so long since they beat Pakistan in Pakistan or Australia in Australia. It's not so long ago since they recalled Alex Hales due to his excellent Big Bash record or since Chris Woakes helped them to victories. In such circumstances, they are surely better sticking to the script and attempting to play with the freedom and confidence which saw them come into this tournament as one of the favourites.
That's the view of Moeen Ali, anyway. He is the only one of England's batters in the top 20 strike rates in the tournament so far and feels that, had he been able to face just two or three more balls in the match against Ireland, might have been able to help his side to victory.
Now he has urged his teammates to "be brave" and, as a man who has experienced the harshness of Australia first-hand, avoid any sense that history may be repeating itself from previous disappointing trips to Australia.
"We've just got to be brave and go out and play the way we want to play," he said as he looked ahead to New Zealand. "It doesn't mean going out and slogging but playing the way we can do and the reason why we were picked. We need to put pressure on the bowling and take those risks sometimes.
"New Zealand are a very dangerous side, one of the great sides around. They have everything and we will have to play our best cricket."
The Gabba, Brisbane, is due to host England vs New Zealand (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
It is clear Moeen remains frustrated by the performance against Ireland. He suggests the performance in that game was, at times, "terrible".
"I think against Ireland if we’d taken a few more risks at the top, which would have been hard, but if we’d put pressure on the bowlers that would have been a different ball game," he said. "Their bowlers were quite inexperienced too. It can be slightly frustrating.
"I thought we could have put our foot down a little bit earlier in that situation and been a bit more proactive as a side, not just the batters out there.
"Literally, if we'd have got six more singles throughout the innings we'd have won it so it's massively frustrating. But to be honest we didn't deserve to win. We played poorly. We were terrible that day, in my opinion."
If that sounds as if Moeen is criticising his teammates, he is equally self-critical. He had not, until this tour, played international cricket in Australia since his chastening Ashes tour of 2017-18 when he averaged 19.88 with the bat and 115 with the ball. It is clear he still has some scars from the experience.
Moeen wasn't the only England played to endure a tough Ashes tour in 2017-18(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
"I think about that 2017 Ashes series, and I think, every ground we go to now, this is where this happened and this is where that happened," Moeen said. "Or I think, 'I shouldn’t have played that game because I had this problem'.
"It's almost parked in the back of my mind. It was a disaster of a tour and I don’t even want to think about it. Not just personally but as a side we were terrible, and the last two times we've been out here, I hope it won’t happen again.
"Personally it is too much for me to think about. I just think we should win the two games, win them nicely if we can, and put ourselves in a position that, if it comes to run rate, we have a great chance. We are a dangerous side and I don’t think teams will want to play us."
He's probably right. But England really do need to win those next two games if they are to prove it.
Welcome to www.thecricketer.com - the online home of the world’s oldest cricket magazine. Breaking news, interviews, opinion and cricket goodness from every corner of our beautiful sport, from village green to national arena.