Weather may force England's hand at Lord's

SAM MORSHEAD AT LORD'S: Heavy rain is expected to hit London on Wednesday, with the very real possibility that the entire first day will be ruled out as a result, while further deluges are predicted to arrive on Saturday

The terrible weather forecast for Lord’s may force England’s hand when it comes to team selection for the second Ashes Test against Australia.

Heavy rain is expected to hit London on Wednesday, with the very real possibility that the entire first day will be ruled out as a result, while further deluges are predicted to arrive on Saturday.

The impact of the miserable weather could be substantial, and not just in terms of overs lost from the game. In fact, it may well have a major knock-on effect for the hosts’ team selection.

With the match expected to be little more than a three or three-and-a-half-day affair, the influence of spinners on proceedings - at a ground which has not traditionally offered a great deal to slow bowlers - will be massively reduced.

And that could see England opt to name an XI without Jack Leach.

Leach replaced Moeen Ali in the squad for the game at Lord’s, and his bowling angles have been widely talked about as a potential chink in the armour of Steve Smith - whose career average against slow left-armers in Tests is some 25 runs below his overall equivalent.

^{"Leach could be a victim of the inclement conditions"}

The Somerset man, however, had little opportunity to show what he could do on his previous appearance at the Home of Cricket - he managed just three overs in the entire match against Ireland, despite making 92 with the bat as nightwatchman - and he could well be a victim of the inclement conditions.

England’s selection panel - comprising of captain Joe Root, coach Trevor Bayliss and national selector Ed Smith - are understandably keen to find a place for Sam Curran, the precocious Surrey allrounder who has impressed during his brief Test career.

He will not oust Chris Woakes for this game - the Warwickshire allrounder has 24 wickets from four Tests at Lord’s at better than 10 runs apiece, and averages 68.5 with the bat - while Jofra Archer will make his debut in the format.

It would be a strange decision to drop Stuart Broad, who stepped up manfully in Jimmy Anderson’s absence at Edgbaston and will be key to England success and a route back into the series, while Jos Buttler is unlikely to make way despite his recent poor form against Australia in Test cricket.

Instead, two players find their places under threat - Leach and Joe Denly.

Swapping out Denly for Curran would theoretically extend England’s tail, with Jonny Bairstow or Ben Stokes moving to No.4, but the latter averages over 31 in Tests, compared to Denly’s 21.75.

^{Will England make room for Curran?}

Curran’s potential to move up the order as his career progresses is also widely known.

Retaining Denly while leaving out Leach, however, would give Root an alternative slow bowling option as well as the left-arm angle offered by Curran’s skiddy action. 

And if the atmospherics are going to be as anticipated at Lord’s, it may be that having an arsenal of seamers - by leaving out Leach, England would be going in with five plus two part-time spinners in Denly and Root - is the preferred option.

Whatever happens, England will leave their decision late.

“We’ll have to read the situation when we come to deal with it. It might be that we toss up, teams are named and it rains for the rest of the day,” Root said on Tuesday. 

“These sort of things happen that can be out of your control. You just have to adapt when and if you need to. 

“We have plenty of different options to go to. That’s the beauty of the squad. It gives us a good opportunity to be really clear on how we want to approach the game and what balance is going to be best suited to this surface.”

To celebrate England winning the World Cup you can subscribe to The Cricketer for just £20.19. Click here to learn more