The Cricketer looks at what is required in the concluding set of fixtures as sides eye a place in the last eight
Qualified: Birmingham Bears, Lancashire Lightning, Derbyshire Falcons
In contention: Yorkshire Vikings, Notts Outlaws
Eliminated: Northamptonshire Steelbacks, Leicestershire Foxes, Durham, Worcestershire Rapids
Fixtures: Lancashire Lightning v Birmingham Bears, Worcestershire Rapids v Notts Outlaws, Derbyshire Falcons v Durham, Leicestershire Foxes v Yorkshire Vikings
It would take an extraordinary turn of events to see Yorkshire Vikings miss out on a quarter-final berth. Having seen Leicestershire Foxes knocked out courtesy of their two-point deduction, only Notts Outlaws can deny them a last-eight spot.
Only victory for Notts at New Road, defeat for Yorkshire and a massive, mathematically improbably, net run rate swing can lead to Peter Moores' side leapfrogging into fourth.
The Vikings' top-four ambitions were in the balance after defeat to Birmingham Bears but they're now odds on to progress after their do-or-die clash with Leicestershire was diluted by Cricket Disciplinary Commission ruling.
Northants head into the final round powerless (David Rogers/Getty Images)
Northants start the round in fifth but are out of contention after losing by a single run to Paul Nixon's side in their final group game. The washout at bottom side Worcestershire sparked a fatal five-match winless run.
Bears are assured of a home quarter-final and Lancashire should have that luxury too if they can beat them at Old Trafford. Derbyshire, also on 16 points, will be waiting to capitalise if they can beat a Durham side who have not won since June 10.
Vikings could land a quarter-final at Headingley but they would need to do the business against Leicestershire and hope that Lancashire and Derbyshire fail to win.
As an aside, Worcestershire have to beat Notts to stand any chance of ensuring they avoid finishing with the lowest points total in the competition.
Surrey are bound for fortress Kia Oval in the final round (Ben Hoskins/Getty Images)
Qualified: Surrey, Somerset, Essex Eagles, Hampshire Hawks
In contention: N/A
Eliminated: Gloucestershire, Glamorgan, Sussex Sharks, Middlesex, Kent Spitfires
Fixtures: Gloucestershire v Middlesex, Kent Spitfires v Glamorgan, Sussex Sharks v Hampshire, Somerset v Surrey
It is a bit more simple down south where the quarter-finalists are confirmed. Surrey are confirmed to be back at the Kia Oval, where they won all seven of their games but the order below them is still to be determined.
A third win in a row for Somerset will see them back at Taunton, but they face Gareth Batty's side on Sunday (July 3). Essex start the day in second after beating Glamorgan at Chelmsford in their final group game.
Middlesex are among those sides looking to avoid bottom spot (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Victory over Gloucestershire means Hampshire have avoided a nervy final day and they could still finish third but must beat Sussex and hope for help from Surrey.
There is a *cough* intriguing battle for the South Group wooden spoon, with three sides bidding to avoid propping up the table. Middlesex start in eighth with a two-point buffer over defending champions Kent, but their woeful net run rate means they are vulnerable should they lose at Bristol and the Spitfires find form at Sophia Garden.
Sussex are also part of the three-way battle but avoiding defeat to Hampshire will be enough to avoid that ignominy.
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